Abstract
The world is approaching geopolitical gridlock, and the event of a global conflict involving the world’s technological leaders is lurking on the horizon. Consequently. race to innovate on defense and deterrence technologies has begun, where weapons become more effective and less reliant on human control. As a result, this research seeks to investigate the trajectory of cutting-edge weapons and their implications in warfare.
With the looming threat of a conflict in the Pacific, the United States is concerned with developing technology that can compete with the ‘homefield advantage’ possessed by China. Coastal defenses—anti-ship missiles, submarines, artificial islands, and detection perimeters—make establishing naval superiority extremely challenging. This requires a need for underwater vehicles that can enter adversary waters without detection.
Advancements in military technology do not end with submersibles, with greater milestones being achieved in artificial intelligence and autonomy. This evolution of computing capability is enabling the rise of autonomous warfare, where humans are further detached from control over weaponry. This presents significant ethical and legal concerns, and the world is at an inflection point that demands effective and practical governance.
The technical aspect of this research, Project Loch Ness, is a feasibility study concerning magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) propulsion and its implementation into submersible and surface vehicles. The value proposition of MHD propulsion is generating thrust underwater with no moving parts by orienting electric and magnetic fields perpendicularly. Project Loch Ness required the design, construction, and testing of an MHD drive prototype, as well as supporting systems and infrastructure, including static and dynamic testing platforms and compliant procedures with UVA’s Environmental Health and Safety organization. From testing, the MHD drive exhibited low thrust and power efficiency relative to its mass, as well as the stealth-compromising phenomenon of electrolysis, drawing the conclusion that MHD propulsion is not yet fit to be adopted as an underwater stealth technology in place of traditional propulsion mechanisms. Regardless, valuable insight into a potential advanced technology that could support submerged naval operations was acquired, informing the next steps in the quest for achieving superior warfighting capability.
The sociotechnical analysis section of the project explored operationalizing ethical concerns in the development and deployment of lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS). The process to analyzing ethical dilemmas surrounding LAWS and addressing them with a legislative position was performed by first identifying these issues across literature and proposed solutions, followed by developing a framework that conforms to existing international humanitarian law that adjusts with the evolution of autonomous capability. The primary stress points of LAWS relate to accountability in killing and their accuracy. When human authority is severed from the actions of an autonomous weapon, the accountability in both wrongdoing and moral agency to kill is eroded, resulting in great debate and concern for administering LAWS under existing international legislation and ethical warfare frameworks. The accuracy of these systems, specifically their predictability, reliability, and their operators’ understanding of their decision-making processes compounds the challenges initially presented by the lack of accountability in fully autonomous systems. This research proposes a tiered solution that enables maintaining meaningful human control for both semi-autonomous weapons by requiring human intervention in lethal action, and for fully autonomous weapons by installing ethical guidelines in algorithmic judgement that restricts anomalous behavior. Moreover, this framework conserves extensive testing of these weapons in accordance with the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons. This research hopes to contribute to the development of international law that can manage this new technology as it becomes more ingrained in military operations.
The primary goal of the technical project—determining the feasibility of MHD propulsion as a scalable and effective technology—was fulfilled. However, Project Loch Ness had the coupled intent of building a prototype submersible vehicle to exhibit MHD propulsion in motion. Due to the form of the submersible being contingent on the design of the MHD drive, it was realized that waiting for a final prototype of the MHD drive would prevent the development of a submersible structure within the given timeframe. As a result, the team decided to build a surface testing platform—a remote-control catamaran—instead. This enabled the fulfillment of the primary mission objective and the secondary mission objective of constructing a full vehicle prototype. Ultimately, Project Loch Ness began with improving or exploring underwater technologies. As such, teams that pursue Project Loch Ness may continue iterating on the MHD drive, integrating the drive into a full submersible vehicle, or researching other stealth technologies, from “quiet” tracking to specialized hull design.
Regarding autonomous weapon ethics, the research and analysis performed was fruitful in determining the specific strains that autonomous weapons place on existing international legislation, as well as proposing a broad solution. Further research may plan to address other issues, such as lowering the threshold for initiating or escalating conflict, or detailing the insertion of this proposed solution into current military doctrine and jus in bello regulation.
