Parameterizing SIBBORK forest gap model to predict Miombo woodland dynamics under changing environmental and anthropogenic conditions 1 views

Miombo woodlands provide critical ecosystem services across southern Africa, yet the effects of climate change, fire, and human activity are altering the natural processes of these systems and the livelihoods that rely on them. Therefore, understanding these ecosystems and how they change under varying climate and resource use scenarios is critical for the sustainability of both ecosystems and communities. This study aims to contribute to this understanding through the initial parameterization of the SIBBORK individual-based gap model to simulate a protected Miombo woodland area in Mozambique. By deriving species-specific allometric equations from local forest inventory data and integrating site-specific remotely sensed environmental conditions, the spatially-explicit model can directly represent localized forest dynamics. This analysis evaluates the accuracy of the initial parameterization, which consistently underestimates DBH and height growth even under varying allometric relationships and species-specific environmental thresholds. While we found that the model does not yet accurately replicate Miombo growth relative to in-situ data, it provides a foundational analysis of key input parameters governing ecosystem dynamics. Future work to further refine and validate the model will allow it to be used to predict how these woodlands respond to various climate, resource use, and management scenarios. Ultimately, this framework serves as a vital tool for analyzing the ecological-economic trade-offs of resource use and conservation, informing sustainable management strategies that support the resilience of both forests and forest-dependent communities.

BS (Bachelor of Science)

Miombo Woodlands; SIBBORK Forest gap model; Ecosystem dynamics

2026-09-01