Scenario-Based Preferences in Risk Analysis and Systems Engineering: Evolution through Time Frames

Priority-setting in large-scale systems involves uncertainties across multiple, competing aims that span technology, climate, economy, regulatory, socio-economic, ecology, and other dimensions. Recent literature has advocated scenario-based preferences in multicriteria analysis to seek robust initiatives across scenarios of epistemic or deep uncertainty (Stewart et al. 2013; Goodwin and Wright 2001; Montibeller et al. 2006 and Parnell 1999). Schroeder and Lambert (2011) adopted scenario-based preferences for risk analysis, identifying combinations of risk factors that are influential to priority setting. Previous analyses fall short of addressing evolving initiatives, criteria, and uncertainties. The scenario-based approach should be implemented as a process that provides continuity of analyses across past, present, and future time frames. This dissertation describes a process for iterative framing of scenario-based preferences for risk analysis in systems engineering, updating criteria, alternatives, and emergent factors. The process is demonstrated in several case studies: (i) selecting energy technologies for islanding of fixed military installations, and (ii) selecting research and development initiatives for climate-change resilience of coastal facilities. The approach is generally applicable for risk analysis and systems engineering that addresses emergent and future conditions for the government, military, and industry.