Agility and Risk with Evolving Priorities of Enterprise Systems and Supply Chains

Adaptability of logistics systems may be sustaining humanity with the latest supply chain shocks from Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine accelerating trends in technology, climate, economy and society. Reconfiguration of supply chains requires advancing risk-based decision-making models that can be maintained under changing conditions. As human and organizational values change, model assumptions for logistics systems must be revised. For example, changes in technology used to operate physical infrastructure such as pipelines have created new vulnerabilities that make enterprises and their customers increasingly interdependent with the cyber security practices of contractors or other external actors. This dissertation develops methods for adaptability of logistics systems subject to disruption of priorities, with three innovations: (i) agility of systems modeling demonstrated for freight modal diversion; (ii) description of a novel risk classification model for modal diversion able to consider multiple enterprise and community stakeholders; and (iii) risk register methodologies to support maintenance of model assumptions. Several case studies, involving 19.7 billion tons of freight, $18.9 trillion of freight value, 119 million miles of freight travel, and 54 ports of entry are used to illustrate the innovations of this dissertation.