Rule-Based Filtering of Risk Scenarios by the Disruption of Management Priorities

This thesis develops a rule-based approach to filtering of the risk scenarios that most disrupt current agency or organizational priorities. The approach is demonstrated in priority-setting for the electric power sector of Afghanistan. Various scenarios are shown to relatively influence the prioritization of capacity-building initiatives for electric power. The effort extends existing methodologies for disruption of priorities with scenario-based analysis, adding rule-based inputs and calculations in place of utility or value assessments. A sensitivity analysis is performed by comparing the outputs of the rule-based methodology with alternative sets of criteria. The effort creates a focus of risk analysis on the sources of risk that bring about a changing-of-minds or changing-of-interests among decision makers. It is complementary and compatible with a focus on the sources of risk with the highest likelihoods and consequences. The implications of this work are important for the theory and practice of systems engineering, which is foremost concerned with priorities and circumstances that are unprecedented and evolving.