Turkish foreign policy in Cyprus and Azerbaijan: a structural realist interpretation

This thesis demonstrates that the exercise of assertive foreign policy by Turkey in the cases examined was a function of a composite variable called geopolitical constraint, composed of the interpreted probability of Soviet or Russian reciprocation, the degree of leverage exercised by the American executive on Turkish decision-making, and the presence of a regional hegemonic threat to assertive policy. It is important to note that no one of the above three factors is sufficient as an explanatory variable. Nor is the claim made that any one is a necessary condition. Rather, any combination of them, if resulting in a low value of the composite variable geopolitical constraint, does serve as a sufficient explanation of assertive policy outcome.